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Monday, June 20, 2011

Exchange Rates and the BOP

Economic Growth and the Balance of Payments ConstraintFINALLY: EXCHANGE RATES AND THE BALANCE OF PAYMENTS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Okay- final bit, and then we can all write our exams and promptly forget everything we ever needed to know about economics! =D

What is a balance of payments? It's a summary account of all the receipts and payments in and out of Canada (or any other country) in relation to the rest of the world (including payments made for both goods and investments). It clocks Canadian money moving back and forth across the border. Receipts are money going into Canada, and payments are money going out of Canada.

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Saturday, June 18, 2011

Trade Policy

This chapter looks at the policies which either facilitate or impede free trade in the world!

As economists, we usually are in favor of free trade. We recognize that free trade offers many benefits to different countries!

Why is free trade a good idea?
-The law of comparative advantage
-When there is regional specialization and trade, the world production of all products rises
-This maximizes the world's average standard of living (world GDP per capita)

On the other hand, some countries may attempt to instill protectionist policies (policies which counteract free trade in order to protect domestic firms from international competition). These can include both TARIFFS and NON TARIFF BARRIERS (NTBs, such as quotas, customs procedures, anti-dumping duties and countervailing duties).

Why might nation choose certain degrees of protectionism?

REASONS WHICH RELATE TO MAXIMIZING NATIONAL INCOME

1: To improve the terms of trade! If a country is large enough, it can force the world price downward for goods it imports by imposing a Tariff

2: Infant Industry Protection. Some countries may set up trade barriers in order to protect domestic firms from international competition, with the hopes that these industries will grow to the point where they can realize economies of scale. The idea here is that under protection, infant industries will eventually "grow up" to the point where they will be able to compete on the international market without need of protectionism. A problem with this is that not all industries develop to this level of competency while under protection. Canada's national policy of 1876 was an example of infant industry protection directed at improving Canadian manufacturing.

3: Learning by doing. This sort of goes along with infant industry protection, but along with protecting developing industries from international competitors, protectionism can also simply give those industries time to operate, which gives personnel time to gain mastery over certain procedures. In this way, countries can turn comparative disadvantages into comparative advantages.

PROBLEM! Not every industry which gets chosen for protection will ultimately grow up to be an international "winner", so each time the government placed an industry under protection, they are effectively gambling (as protectionism exacts economic costs) on their choice. If governments do this frequently, statistically, they are likely to choose more losers than winners, which would be quite costly.

=(

4: Protectionism can allow certain key industries to earn economic profits and thus innovate more. As such, Canada has strategic trade policy in place with regards to Bombardier (if you remember, they're the company which made the olympic torches)

OTHER REASONS

1: There are advantages from diversification. Countries which are only specialized in a narrow range of products may use protectionism in order to diversify their economies (which gives local firms a "safe space" to expand into new industries, thus increasing the range of products produced domestically). This can be useful in that it buffers the volatility and risk posed by price changes and new technologies by spreading production to several different sectors. The idea here is not to "put all of your eggs in one basket" (although, often, this is more of a political argument than an economic argument)

2: Protectionism lets governments protect favored groups! In Canada, competitive advantage favors skilled labour over unskilled labour, and as a result, free trade may lower the wages of unskilled laborers (who are now competing with wage slaves from overseas). Here, protectionism can redistribute income to certain productive groups, but at the expense of the collective standard of GDP. There is a deadweight loss!

USUALLY, HOWEVER, PROTECTIONISM IS FOR POLITICAL OR FALLACIOUS ECONOMIC REASONS!!!!!!!!! >=(

HERE ARE SOME FAULTY ARGUMENTS WHICH PEOPLE WILL OFTEN POSE IN ORDER TO SUPPORT PROTECTIONISM!

1: "We've got to keep our money at home"
The Premise: If I buy a domestic good, by country will have both the good AND the money used to buy that good
Why it's incorrect: Domestic money is only useful for buying domestic goods. If you are buying foreign products, the money you spend on those products eventually gets used to buy Canadian products- it flows between the two trading countries

2: "We've got to protect ourselves from low-cost foreign labour"
The Premise: Low wage foreign goods will eliminate domestic goods from the market, and thus lower the domestic standard of living.
Why it's incorrect: This goes against the law of comparative advantage. Even if a foreign country can produce all goods at a lower cost than Canada, it would still be advantageous to trade, as trade will lower the opportunity cost of having certain products.

3: "Exports are good, and imports are bad"
The Premise: Exports add to domestic GDP, while imports take away from domestic GDP
Why it's incorrect: Standard of living is dependent on consumption, not production. If a country exports a lot of goods, but derives its comparative advantage by paying its workers very low salaries, then those workers will not be able to consume very many products, on average, and thus that country's standard of living will probably be quite low.

4: "Protectionism creates local jobs"
The Premise: Protecting the domestic market can help save local jobs, and thus combat unemployment
Why it's incorrect: Protectionism reduces employment in other sectors which may have local comparative advantages, and thus, while it may increase employment in one sector, the overall economic effect is inefficient.

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METHODS OF PROTECTIONISM

TARIFFS: Import Duties- these are a tax on imports. They increase costs for domestic consumers, but benefit domestic producers (who can sell at higher than the world price) and the government (who receives tax revenue). Tariffs create a deadweight social loss for the economy as a whole.

Originally, at the world price, Canada will import 1500 units of this product, and domestic producers will supply the other 500 units needed to satisfy demand.

Once the tariff raises the prices, Canada only imports 500 units of the product, and domestic producers supply the other 1000 units needed to satisfy domestic demand (as you can see, demand has decreased due to the higher price).

Consumer lose surplus represented by sections C, D, E, & F due to the Tariff
Producers gain surplus represented by section C due to the Tariff (the increase in price times the increase in production, minus the costs incurred by increasing production)
The government gains section E due to the Tariff (the quantity of foreign imports at the Tariff price, multiplied by the amount of the Tariff)

SECTIONS D & F REPRESENT A DEADWEIGHT SOCIAL LOSS, HOWEVER! (tragic, isn't it!?)

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QUOTAS AND VOLUNTARY EXPORT RESTRICTIONS (VERs)
An import quota is like a quantity ceiling- it restricts the quantity of products which a country will import
With a voluntary export restriction, the exporter agrees to limit the amount of exports it will send to any one country.
This incurs costs for domestic consumers, but benefits domestic producers
The net result is a deadweight social loss which is greater than that which results from a Tariff!


At the world price, Canada will import Q4 - Q1, and domestic producers will supply Q1
Let's say that a quota restricts domestic imports to Q3 - Q2. If this happens, then the domestic price must rise to P1, where the quota exactly satisfies the excess demand which domestic producers cannot meet.

Consumers lose surplus equal to E, F, G, H, & I due to the quota,
Producers gain surplus equal to E due to the quota
Since there is no taxation here, the higher price on the quota goods causes foreign producers to gain surplus equal to G & H

THERE IS A DEADWEIGHT LOSS EQUAL TO SECTIONS F & I due to the quota! >=(

Usually, in trade barrier situations, exporters prefer a quota (so they can gain the extra revenue section) while importing governments prefer a tariff (so they can gain the extra revenue section).

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NON-TARIFF BARRIERS

1: Antidumping Duties
-Dumping is the practice of selling a good in a foreign country at a price below domestic prices at a reason other than costs
-This is like price discrimination (remember from micro) but on an international level
-Usually, it is only temporary, in order to sell off excess supply, or to weaken local industries and force reliance on foreign imports
-It is seen as anti-competitive, and many people believe that it is an unfair form of competition
-Antidumping duties (taxes to bring "dumped" imports back up to the domestic price level) are often used to compensate for this
-Recently, however, these have been abused and used as a non-trade barrier
-When Antidumping Duties are used, the domestic price becomes the price floor, regardless of the foreign price (which can lead to an inflexibility in domestic prices compared to the world price)
-As such, if the world price falls below the average costs for domestic producers, they are protected
-Often, the system requires foreign accusers to prove that dumping is occurring in order for antidumping duties to be instated

2: Countervailing duties: a tariff imposed as a trade remedy to counteract foreign governments subsidizing their industries
-Governments wishing to impose countervailing duties must prove that there is a foreign subsidy being used to bolster a certain foreign industry, and that it is significantly harming the prospects of domestic producers
-The U.S. is currently placing countervailing duties on Canadian softwood lumber.

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IMPORTANT ORGANIZATIONS AND TERMS

GATT- The general agreement on trades and tariffs: an effort to reduce international protectionism

The Uruguay Round- reduced tariffs by 40%, but failed to deal with European and Canadian agricultural subsidies (eventually, they ended quotas, but replaced them with Tariffs in a process called Tariffication)

WTO- World trade organization- it has 148 members, it is a global organization which deals with the rules of trade, and it endeavors to lower trade and non-trade barriers. It also includes a formal dispute settlement mechanism

Doha Round- tried to reduce agricultural subsidies

The Battle for Seattle- People protested that human, labour, and environmental rights were not being addressed by the WTO. Interestingly, 3rd world countries often argue against considering these in trade deals

MAI- Multilateral agreement on investment: similar to WTO, but for investments

Free trade Area- Goods and services may move freely among member countries, but each member nation still sets barriers against foreign imports on an individual basis (like NAFTA) PROBLEM: Certain Tariffs have grandfather clauses, and thus persist despite agreements.

Customs Union- A free trade area, but with a common set of barriers against foreign imports (like Mercosur: Brazil, Uruguay, Paraguay, and Argentina)

Common Market- A customs union in which factors of production (i.e., workers) may move freely among member nations (like the EU)

THAT'S ALMOST ALL!!!
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Tuesday, May 17, 2011

Gains from International Trade

OKAY! Let's talk turkey about international trade.



Over time, while world GDP had been increasing at a fairly constant rate, world trade has increased exponentially!

Canada is, itself, involved in quite a bit of international trade (we export and import quite a lot of goods)

David Rciardo was an economist of lore (1772-1823), and he was a major proponent of international trade. He wrote "Current comparative advantage is a major determinant of trade under free-market conditions."

Economists who advocated world trade often promoted teachings which led to real changes, such as England repealing its corn laws and moving towards a more open economy (an open economy is one which engages in international free trade, and realizes certain advantages from this, known as the gains from trade).

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Saturday, May 14, 2011

Unemployment

London Labour and the London Poor
Okay- I'm really behind in these online notes, but I'm going to catch up as much as I possibly can tonight.

Unemployment is scary stuff! Here we go!

CHANGES IN UNEMPLOYMENT:
-In the long run, increases in the labor force should be matched by changes in employment (so as the population grows, more people should get hired for more jobs)
-In the short run, changes in the labor force may not match population growth

In Canada, the supply of labour has increased because of increases in the population (probably due to immigration), an increased rate of labor force participation, and an increase in education. Demand for labor has also increased due to new technology and economic growth. In most years, new jobs are created to replace old jobs and provide new jobs for the growing labor force.

In a typical year in Canada, employment increases by 1/4 million jobs.
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Friday, April 29, 2011

More Irritating Details About Inflation

The Phillips Curve & Accelerating Inflation

-We know what the Phillips curve is. I'm not explaining it again.
-At Y* and U*, there is no gap inflation
-When the economy is in an inflationary gap, the BoC must validate for wage inflation
-In the 1960s, the level of wage and price adjustment began to rise for any level of output (the whole phillips curve shifted to the right)
-Why? Because the original phillips curve included only gap inflation and ignored expectation inflation (which impacts wage changes, obviously)
-This newly-shifted phillips curve is called the expectations-augmented phillips curve. There is still an inverse relation between the unemployment rate and the rate of changes of nominal wages, but with the effect of expectation inflation built into the model.
-Expectation inflation is graphically represented by the height of the phillips curve above the X axis at U*

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Wednesday, April 27, 2011

Demand Shocks and Accelerating Inflation

INFLATIONARY DEMAND SHOCKS AND INFLATION
Inflationary Cosmology-An increase in consumption, investment, government expenditures, and net exports causes an increase in aggregate expenditure, a rightward shift in aggregate demand, and an increase in the equilibrium price level.

IF THE GOVERNMENT DOES NOT VALIDATE INFLATION CAUSED BY AN ISOLATED DEMAND SHOCK
Aggregate demand will shift to the right as a result of this demand shock. Y is now greater than Y*, and thus we have an inflationary gap. however, wages adjust: excess demand for labour increases wages, which in turn increases firm costs. As a result, short run aggregate supply shifts to the left, and output returns to its original level, but at a higher price level. This is one-shot inflation. The price level is now at a higher equilibrium level, but since the demand shock is isolated, inflation will not be sustained.
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Wednesday, April 20, 2011

Inflation and Supply Shocks

Conquer the Crash: You Can Survive and Prosper in a Deflationary DepressionFROM WAGE CHANGES TO PRICE CHANGES
-If a change in money wages is positive (wages increase), short run aggregate supply will decrease (it shifts to the left due to increased costs). This causes prices to rise, and the overall effect is inflationary
-If an change in money wages is negative (wages decrease), short run aggregate supply will increase (it shifts to the right due to lowered costs). This causes prices to fall, and the overall effect is deflationary.

Wages up --> Costs up ---> SRAS shifts left --> Equilibrium price level rises


Okay... so so far, we've talked about two causes of inflation: gap effects and worker expectations. There is, however, a third cause of inflationary pressures: AN EXOGENOUS SUPPLY SHOCK (for an example, a change in the price of raw materials, such as oil, can increase the general price level, which is why vegetables can start to cost more when the price of oil goes up).

SOOO
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